Why Is Gold Falling? The Biggest Mystery Uncovered! 🚨📉

IITian Trader • 1 day ago

Original source

What This Video Is About

The video discusses the current state of the gold market, which is experiencing a bearish trend despite being considered a safe haven. The speaker analyzes the technical and fundamental factors contributing to the gold crash, including rate hike bettors, oil importers selling assets for dollars, and hedge funds selling due to margin calls.

Major Ideas Discussed

  • The gold market is currently weak, with every bounce turning into a selling opportunity, and a pattern of higher highs and lower lows indicating a bearish trend.
  • The total value of gold has been erased in the past 9 months, with trillions of dollars wiped out, leading to a 30% crash in the market.
  • Central banks, such as the People's Bank of China, are buying gold, but the pace of buying is slowing down.
  • Gold is not an effective inflation hedge, as its value has not kept pace with inflation over the past 46 years, and instead serves as insurance against the system breaking.
  • Gold prices tend to move when the system changes, such as during times of war, inflation, or economic crisis.
  • The question of whether gold is cheap depends on the measurement used, with gold being undervalued compared to the 1980 peak.
  • The Treasury is playing a crucial role in maintaining the economy, buying back its own bond yields to prevent inflation from rising.
  • India owns more gold than the big four governments, with an estimated 25,000 tons held by households, and the demand for gold is high, particularly during festivals like Dhanteras and Diwali.
  • There is a disagreement among smart money investors, with some believing that bond prices, inflation, and oil prices will continue to rise, while others expect gold to double or triple in value.

What to Watch Next

The speaker mentions four dates that will decide the price of gold: November 4 (Treasury refunding), November 6-8 (Dhanteras-Diwali), early November (WGC Q3 report), and December 9 (decision on whether gold will bottom out or plan to go lower).