Buy Greenpanel Industries; target of Rs 250: Anand Rathi

Moneycontrol • 1 day ago

Original source

Key Investment Pillars

  • Greenpanel Industries topped topline estimates by 4.8% YoY in Q2FY27, led by lower-than-expected decline in MDF sales volume.
  • The company expects pricing pressure in the domestic MDF market to persist for the next two years due to excess capacity.
  • Management aims to grow MDF volume at least in-line with the industry (15-17% CAGR) from Q3FY27 or Q4FY27, driven by recovery in OEM and export sales.
  • The MDF segment margin is expected to improve due to lower chemical prices and improved operating leverage.

Thesis Validation Checklist

  • Watch for signs of recovery in OEM and export sales, which could drive 15-17% growth in MDF volume.
  • Monitor the impact of excess capacity on pricing pressure in the domestic MDF market.
  • Track the improvement in MDF segment margin due to lower chemical prices and improved operating leverage.
  • Observe the company's ability to regain market share in the MDF segment through price realignments.